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Trump’s Economy “Keeps Getting Better & Better & Better”

- September 7, 2018

Wage Growth "Soars" In Yet Another Month Of Strong Job Growth And Historically Low Unemployment

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TOP TAKEAWAYS

  • President Donald Trump's economy beat expectations in August  in an impressive month that saw 201,000 jobs added.
    • On average, President Trump has added 82,000 more jobs per month than President Obama.
  • "Wage growth soar[ed] at its fastest pace since the Great Recession" and the unemployment rate held "near a generational low" of 3.9 percent.
    • Unemployment remains historically low, as the number of Americans filing for unemployment hit its lowest point since 1969.
  • Today's "strong" jobs report was widely praised thanks to companies "aggressively hiring" in August, with commentators calling the report "a positive sign," "good economic news," and evidence that the economy "keeps getting better and better and better."
  • Consumer confidence rose to an 18-year high, and economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector hit its highest level since May 2004.
  • Each month's NFIB Small Business Survey is better than the last and August's was no exception as small business owners continue to have "unprecedented" confidence in the economy.

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JOB GROWTH UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP CONTINUES TO OUTPACE PRESIDENT OBAMA

The 201,000 Jobs Added In August Continues A Trend Of Strong Job Growth Under President Trump

Nonfarm Payroll Increased By 201,000 In August. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 8/3/18)

President Trump Has Created An Average Of 82,000 More Jobs Per Month Than President Obama. ("Employment, Hours, And Earnings From The Current Employment Statistics Survey (National)," Bureau Of Labor Statistics , 8/3/18)

  • Under President Trump, Job Growth Has Averaged 192,000 Jobs A Month. ("Employment, Hours, And Earnings From The Current Employment Statistics Survey (National)," Bureau Of Labor Statistics , 8/3/18)
  • Under President Obama, The Labor Market Added An Average Of 110,000 Jobs Per Month. ("Employment, Hours, And Earnings From The Current Employment Statistics Survey (National)," Bureau Of Labor Statistics , 8/3/18)

Overview Of Recent Monthly Job Creation. ("Employment, Hours, And Earnings From The Current Employment Statistics Survey (National)," Bureau Of Labor Statistics , 8/3/18)

  • July: 147,000 Jobs Added
  • June: 208,000 Jobs Added
  • May: 268,000 Jobs Added
  • April: 175,000 Jobs Added
  • March: 155,000 Jobs Added
  • Feb: 324,000 Jobs Added
  • Jan: 176,000 Jobs Added

Wages Grew Faster Than They Have In Almost A Decade In August

American Wages Climbed By The Most In August By The Most Since The Recession Ended In 2009. "American wages unexpectedly climbed in August by the most since the recession ended in 2009 and hiring rose by more than forecast, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lift interest rates this month and making another hike in December more likely." (Sho Chandra, "U.S. Wage Gains Pick Up To 2.9% While Payrolls Rise 201,000," Bloomberg , 9/7/18)

"Long-Awaited Wage Growth" Showed Up In The August Jobs Report, Posting Its Largest Gain Of The Recovery . "Long-awaited wage growth posted its biggest increase of the economic recovery in August while payroll gains beat expectations and the unemployment rate held near a generational low of 3.9 percent, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday." (Jeff Cox, "Economy Adds More Jobs Than Expected In August, And Wage Growth Hits Post-Recession High," CNBC , 9/7/18)

The Unemployment Rate Remains Historically Low, Even For Groups Traditionally Plagued By High Unemployment

Under President Trump, The Unemployment Rate Has Decreased From 4.8% To 3.9%. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/6/18)

Under President Trump, The Asian-American Unemployment Rate Has Decreased From 3.8% To 3.0%. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 9/6/18)

Under President Trump, The African-American Unemployment Rate Has Decreased From 7.8% To 6.3%. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 9/6/18)

Under President Trump, The Hispanic-American Unemployment Rate Decreased From 5.9% To 4.7%. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 9/6/18)

In August, Jobless Claims Declined To Their Lowest Point Since 1969. "Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs across the U.S., declined to a seasonally adjusted 203,000 in the last week of August, the Labor Department said Thursday. This is the lowest level of unemployment benefit applications since the end of 1969. Though data can be volatile from week to week, the four-week moving average of claims, a steadier measure, also fell to a 49-year low, signaling overwhelming tightness in the U.S. labor market." (Sharon Nunn, "Layoffs Just Reached A Half-Century Low," The Wall Street Journal , 9/6/18)

  • The Decline In Unemployment Claims Is One Of "Several Sets Of Economic Data Pointing To Late Business-Cycle Strength In The Economy." "Thursday's jobless claims report is one of several sets of economic data pointing to late business-cycle strength in the economy. Economic growth in the second quarter was the strongest since 2014, and the manufacturing industry appears to be hitting a second wind, clocking the strongest growth in 14 years." (Sharon Nunn, "Layoffs Just Reached A Half-Century Low," The Wall Street Journal , 9/6/18)

THIS MONTH'S JOBS REPORT IS BEING WIDELY PRAISED

Today's Jobs Report Was Widely Praised As More "Good Economic News" Rolled In

CNBC Headline : "Economy Adds More Jobs Than Expected In August, And Wage Growth Hits Post-Recession High ." (Jeff Cox, "Economy Adds More Jobs Than Expected In August, And Wage Growth Hits Post-Recession High," CNBC , 9/7/18)

The Associated Press Headline : "US Adds A Strong 201K Jobs; Unemployment Stays At 3.9 Pct." (Christopher Rugaber, "US Adds A Strong 201K Jobs; Unemployment Stays At 3.9 Pct," The Associated Press , 9/7/18)

CNN Money Headline: "US Economy Added A Strong 201,000 Jobs In August." (Lydia Depillis, "US Economy Added A Strong 201,000 Jobs In August," CNN Money , 9/7/18)

Business Insider Headline: "Jobs Report Beats As Wage Growth Soars At Its Fastest Pace Since The Great Recession." (Akin Oyedele, "Jobs Report Beats As Wage Growth Soars At Its Fastest Pace Since The Great Recession," Business Insider , 9/7/18)

Bloomberg Headline: "U.S. Wage Gains Pick Up To 2.9% While Payrolls Rise 201,000." (Sho Chandra, "U.S. Wage Gains Pick Up To 2.9% While Payrolls Rise 201,000," Bloomberg , 9/7/18)

The Economy Beat Expectations In August Adding 201,000 Jobs, As Unemployment Remains At "One Of The Lowest Levels Since 1969." "BREAKING: US economy added 201,000 jobs in August, above expectations of 196k. This is the 95th straight month of gains. Unemployment remained to 3.9%, which is one of the lowest levels since 1969. #jobs #economy" (Heather Long, Twitter Feed , 9/7/18)

CNN's Jake Tapper Called Augusts Jobs Report "Good Economic News." "Good economic news: The US economy added a strong 201,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate stayed at a historically low 3.9%." (Jake Tapper, Twitter Feed , 9/7/18)

Financial Strategist Kathy Jones Hailed "Another Good Jobs Report." "Another good #jobs report. Keeps the Fed on track with gradual rate hikes. Now we wait for news on tariffs. #DXY moving up and ten-year yields above the 100-day moving average." (Kathy Jones, Twitter Feed , 9/7/18)

The Washington Examiner's Patrice Lee Onwuka Celebrated Wage Gains Saying, "Mo Money, Mo Money, Mo Money!" "Mo money, mo money, mo money! 201k jobs added in closing summer month and wages are up! #JobsReport #economy #Jobs #Workforce #winning @IWF." (Patricia Lee Onwuka, Twitter Feed , 9/7/18)

Former Chief Economist & Economic Adviser To Vice President Joe Biden Jared Bernstein Praised "Another Strong Jobs Report," And Also Noted The "Pop" In Wages. "1/2 Another strong jobs report! Job creation solid and a nice pop on wages--up 2.9%, probably ahead of Aug inflation. Don't love the decline in LFPR and EPOP but they're noisy." (Jared Bernstein, Twitter Feed , 9/7/18)

Bloomberg's Michael McKee: This Is Highest Annual Gain In Wages Since 2009. BLOOMBERG'S MICHAEL MCKEE: "Attention Wall Street, wages are up. We saw August 201,000 jobs created. Unemployment unchanged at 3.9%. Average hourly earnings rise 4/10 they were negative. 50,000 total fewer jobs in June and July and while there was a big decline in household employment, the unemployment rate was unchanged because the labor force shrank by 469,000. The participation rate drops 2/10 to 62.7%. U6 unemployment, the discouraged workers out there, dropped 1/10 to 7.4%. Hours worked unchanged at 34.5. Despite builder's complaints about a shortage of construction workers, they still managed to find another 23,000 of them last month. Manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs, but that was mostly in auto production as sales slipped and computer and electronics sales fell. So by little impact visible from tariffs, primary metals added 700 jobs. While the downstream metal producers added 4,100 jobs. No change in coal mining, but there was a loss of 700 jobs in logging. Other categories of note, retailers lost 5,900 jobs, but transportation and warehousing gained more than 20,000, including 2,400 in warehousing, which is likely the Amazon-type jobs. And those impossible to find truck drivers, they still found 5,700 of them." (Bloomberg's "Daybreak" 9/7/18)

Click To Watch

CNN's Chief Business Correspondent Christine Romans: The Economy "Keeps Getting Better And Better And Better," And Unemployment Is At A "Generational Low." CNN's POPPY HARLOW: "Good morning, everyone. It is Friday, I'm Poppy Harlow in New York, we do begin this morning with breaking news on the economy. 201,000 jobs added last month, it's a big number, a positive sign, Christine Romans our chief business correspondent is here with me. CNN's CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT CHRISTINE ROMANS: "Well, this is better than economists thought. It's pretty much in line with what we've seen all year. We've got 201,000 net new jobs and when you look at the trend, you know they always say the trend is your friend here, and this shows more than 200,000 jobs on average for most of the year. That means the unemployment rate is still stuck there at the 3.9%. That is a generational low, that is what many economists consider full employment. You have six million job openings and what you hear from companies is they don't have the skilled workers to fill them. There is the disconnect. What about the sectors, business information kinds of jobs, office jobs? These are lawyers, these are accountants, these are tech folks, 573,000 net new jobs there. Health care, Poppy for years health care has been growing so strongly." (CNN's "Newsroom," 9/7/18)

Click To Watch

CNN Reported That August's Jobs Report Showed Companies Are "Aggressively Hiring." ALISYN CAMEROTA: "We do have breaking news right now. The Labor Department has released the August jobs report. Christine Romans joins with us the numbers. How does it look?" CHRISTINE ROMANS: "A lot of very strong numbers here from the Labor Department this morning, let me show you again. This is in line with what we've been seeing this year, 201,000 net new jobs in August, that is more than economists had been expecting. You saw a couple months revised lower here but really for the year averaging more than 200,000 net new jobs. That means companies are still aggressively hiring every month and that means the unemployment rate remains near this generational low of 3.9%. You didn't have it drop any more here because you had some people dropping out of the labor market, but 3.9% again that is basically full employment in this country. Where was the hiring? We saw again in business these tend to be higher paid jobs. In manufacturing we saw a little bit of decline but manufacturing has had a bit of a renaissance in months past. In health care, I have for years, as you know, been standing here health care is a traditional strong job grower and it continues to be. 95 months in a row now. 95 months in a row of job creation, that has never happened in American history guys. Wages about 2.9%, the strongest since 2009. We'll see if we can put a few months back-to-back like that." JOHN BERMAN: "That might be the most important number but we have to see if it lasts. Christine Romans, great to have you with us. Thanks for helping us understand it." (CNN's "Newday," 9/7/18)

Click To Watch

CONSUMERS' CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH

Consumer Confidence Remains At Historically High Levels

In August, Consumer Confidence Reached Its Highest Level In 18 Years, Expectations Have Bounced Back From A Modest Decline In June And July, Indicating "Solid Economic Growth For The Remainder Of 2018." "'Consumer confidence increased to its highest level since October 2000 (Index, 135.8), following a modest improvement in July,' said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved further. Expectations, which had declined in June and July, bounced back in August and continue to suggest solid economic growth for the remainder of 2018. Overall, these historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending in the near-term.'" ("Consumer Confidence Survey," The Conference Board , 8/28/18)

Consumer Spending Continued Its "Solid" Trajectory In August

Consumer Spending "Spending Increased Solidly In July, Suggesting Strong Economic Growth Early In The Third Quarter." "U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in July, suggesting strong economic growth early in the third quarter, while a measure of underlying inflation hit the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target for the third time this year." (Lucia Mutikani, "U.S. Consumer Spending, Inflation Data Point To Strong Economy," Reuters , 8/30/18)

  • Spending Is Supported By The Strong Jobs Market And The GOP Tax Cuts. "Spending is being supported by the labor market, which is viewed as being near or at full employment, as well as the Trump administration's $1.5 trillion tax cut package." (Lucia Mutikani, "U.S. Consumer Spending, Inflation Data Point To Strong Economy," Reuters , 8/30/18)

SMALL BUSINESSES CONTINUE TO THRIVE

Small Businesses' Optimism Remains Historically High Thanks To President Trump's Pro-Business Policies

The Small Business Optimism Index Marked Its Second Highest Level In The Survey's History, The Last Time Small Business Owners Were This Optemistic Was 1983. "The Small Business Optimism Index marked its second highest level in the survey's 45-year history at 107.9, rising to within 0.1 point of the July 1983 record-high of 108. The July 2018 report also set new records in terms of owners reporting job creation plans and those with job openings. A seasonally-adjusted net 23 percent are planning to create new jobs, up three points from June. Thirty-seven percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, a one-point increase from June." ("July 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index," National Federation Of Independent Businesses , 7/18)

Small Business Performance Since President Trump Took Office Has Been "Unprecedented." "At least in the small business sector of the economy, Main Street's performance over the last 21 months is unprecedented based on reports for the past 45 years by hundreds of thousands of NFIB's member firms. Owners have never been so optimistic for so long. This has translated to improved employment and investment spending that buoys GDP growth, even at the end of what will be the longest expansion in modern history." ("July 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index," National Federation Of Independent Businesses , 7/18)

Small Business "Owners Have Never Been So Optimistic For So Long," This Confidence Has Translated Into Increased Hiring And Spending That Fuels GDP Growth. "At least in the small business sector of the economy, Main Street's performance over the last 21 months is unprecedented based on reports for the past 45 years by hundreds of thousands of NFIB's member firms. Owners have never been so optimistic for so long. This has translated to improved employment and investment spending that buoys GDP growth, even at the end of what will be the longest expansion in modern history." ("July 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index," National Federation Of Independent Businesses , 7/18)


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